Throughout both the regular season and the playoffs, the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals have left little doubt that they are the two best teams in the league, and are very deserving of their places in the 2013 World Series. The two tied for the best record in the MLB at 97-65, and each lead their respective leagues in runs scored by a wide margin while boasting more than capable pitching staffs. This upcoming series has all the makings of a tight one, which will only serve to magnify certain factors that may seem insignificant otherwise. Here are the top 10 deciding factors of this year's Fall Classic, loosely ordered from 10-1.
10. Shortstop Hitting
Both the Sox and the Cards boast very strong lineups from top to bottom. There have been very few weak spots in either throughout the year, but in the playoffs, especially each League Championship Series, the teams have both struggled mightily to get any production from the bats of their starting shortstops. Stephen Drew sports a playoff average just under .100, while Pete Kozma sits right at .200. The more alarming stats however, come from the previous round. Both Drew and Kozma managed a single hit in the respective six game series. Drew finished 1-20, while Kozma was 1-15. Both are clearly kept in the lineup for their glove, but how long can the teams wait before making a move? The Cardinals have already played Daniel Descalso at times, while Boston could explore moving Will Middlebrooks back into the lineup (who has only fared marginally better than Drew), and pushing the red-hot Xander Bogaerts to his natural position of short. Assuming the teams both stick it out with their current guys, the one that finds a way to get the bat going first will immensely help their team, as it could be the difference between getting a few key runs and continuing to kill offensive rallies.
9. AL vs. NL Rules
As is the case with every World Series, teams need to make adjustments for the rules of the opposing league during away games. This year though, there are factors that make this a bit more significant of a storyline. The Cardinals return their cleanup hitter, Allen Craig, for the series, and he will likely DH for the games in Boston (more on him later). It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals can get big hits from Craig, but also from first baseman Matt Adams, who though playing the field, is effectively St. Louis's "extra" hitter. From the Red Sox perspective, it will be very interesting to see the action surrounding the pitcher's spot in the lineup. How will the pitchers fare at bunting/putting the ball in play to move up runners? More importantly, will Boston get production when pinch hitting for the pitchers? Boston has some of the strongest bench hitters in the league (Carp, Gomes, Middlebrooks, Napoli/Saltalamacchia), so it will be important for John Farrell to properly utilize them when changing pitchers. A late inning pinch hitting appearance could be the difference one way or another in a game or two.
8. How will the Red Sox handle an 8-hitter lineup?
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| Will Mike Napoli have to take a seat? Photo: Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images |
This could very well be listed higher than it is, but it builds off of the last factor. What will the Red Sox do without the DH spot that is more valuable to them than any other team in the American League? David Ortiz is arguably Boston's most important hitter, and it is very hard to believe that he could be left out of a World Series lineup. However, Ortiz would slot in at first base in the field, and that's the spot of the other important power bat in the lineup, Mike Napoli. Ideally, both would be in the lineup, but how could they make that work? As recent as last year, Napoli was a catcher, but he (presumably) has not worked much if at all with the Red Sox pitching staff, and that lack of comfort and communication may not be worth the risk. Also, could Napoli's body take the toll of possibly catching three days in a row after not preparing for it all season? Who knows. I'm unsure of Napoli's fielding ability at third base, but if it is even adequate, putting him there and sliding Bogaerts to short could be the best move. Otherwise, the Sox have to decide between losing 3 games of Papi, losing 3 games of Napoli, risking the lack of chemistry behind the plate, or some combination of those. It's not a very enviable position for John Farrell to be in, but then again he's managing in a World Series, so I don't feel TOO bad for him. Whatever decision he makes will be critical, and consequently, the production from those spots will be crucial.
7. Who learned more from the previous series?
If there's any way to prepare for a series against the potent lineup of the Red Sox, it is by facing a stacked Dodgers lineup. At the same time, if there's any way to prepare to face the Cardinals dominant pitching staff, it's by facing the unbelievable starters of the Tigers. Facing these great opponents is one thing. Learning from it is another. Though different teams and players obviously have completely different tendencies to prepare for, the mental effect of facing a similarly strong lineup/staff is important. The Cardinals pitchers have to be fairly confident after allowing the Dodgers to score more than three runs just once, and though the Red Sox didn't have great success against Detroit's starters, the fact that they were able to get past them should bode well for their confidence going up against a slightly less intimidating pitching staff.
6. Molina vs. Boston's speed
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| Will Molina be able to catch the speed of the Sox? Photo: TheCutoffMan.MLBblogs.com |
This is a very intriguing matchup to follow throughout the series. Yadier Molina is one of the best, if not the best defensive catcher in the game. This season, he has thrown out an absurd 43.5% of runners attempting to steal. For comparison's sake, Jarrod Saltalamacchia threw out 21.2% this year. On the flip side, the Red Sox have stolen the fourth most bases in the entire MLB, while getting caught stealing less than any other team in the league. Allow that stat to sink in for a second. Again, to compare, the Red Sox stole 123 bases and got caught 19 times (87%), while the Cardinals only managed to steal 45, but still got caught 22 times (67%). The Red Sox speedsters are led by Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole 52 bases in 56 attempts this year to lead the MLB. Victorino, Pedroia, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are always threats to run as well. Where this matchup could be very important however, is late in games when Boston uses Quintin Berry as a pinch runner. Over his young career, Berry has never been caught stealing on 24 attempts. Something's got to give.
5. Can Boston's starting pitching keep up again?
Last series, it seemed that Boston's starters were outmatched by those of the Tigers. Though they may not have put up the insane numbers of Detroit's starters, they did a remarkable job of keeping the Sox in the game against them. Again, coming into the World Series, the edge seems to be with the Cardinals pitching staff, led by the hot arms of Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. This series, it will be even MORE important for the Sox starters to keep up, as the bullpen matchup isn't nearly as heavily tilted in their direction as it was against Detroit. Lester will have to continue to show that he is a true ace when dueling Wainwright, Lackey needs to continue his incredible late season run, Buchholz will look to build on a strong game 6, where he didn't allow a run while he was in the game (2 ER on inherited runners), after looking a bit shaky in his first two postseason starts, and Peavy has to bounce back from a rough game 4 outing in his only action of the ALCS.
4. Michael Wacha vs. Fenway Park
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| How will the young Wacha handle the pressure? Photo: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images |
Rookie pitcher Michael Wacha pitched unbelievably well late in the regular season after receiving his big league call up, posting a 2.78 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 9 starts. Then October happened. In his three postseason starts thus far, Wacha has posted and otherworldly 0.43 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP, while going 3-0 and striking out 22 batters in 21 innings pitched. WOW. This guy is going to be good. However, an interesting note about those three starts is that both NLCS starts came in St. Louis, and while the NLDS start was on the road, it was hardly unfamiliar territory, as the Cardinals visited the division rival Pirates at PNC Park many times during the regular season. Boston's home field advantage is hugely important here, as it will force Wacha to make not one, but likely two starts at Fenway. How will the rookie handle playing for the biggest prize in baseball, at its most storied stadium, in front of some of its best/craziest/loudest fans? Contrary to what Matthew Broderick says, if Wacha doesn't stop and look around, he'll be okay. However if he allows the gravity of the situation to fully sink in, he may be in trouble. Or maybe he'll flourish. I can't
wait to find out.
3. Allen Craig's Health
Allen Craig is hands down one of the most underrated players in baseball. He batted .454 this year with runners in scoring position. FOUR FIFTY FOUR! Unfortunately, Craig was forced to miss the final 23 games of the regular season and all of the playoffs to this point due to injury. He is back at the very least to be the DH for the games in Boston. At this point, it doesn't look like he will be able to play the field in St. Louis, but it's the World Series, so it wouldn't surprise me if he at least made an effort to. Whether or not he will play in the home games is huge, but the real question is whether he will return to form right away. He cannot afford to get off to a slow start coming back, especially if he only plays in half of the games. If Craig can be 75% of the hitter that he was in the regular season, he will be a welcome addition to the lineup in the games that he plays. If he starts off slowly, there may not be time to right the ship.
2. Will the Red Sox bats come to life earlier?
Anyone who watched the Boston-Detroit series knows how anemic the Red Sox offense was against Detroit's starting pitching. The Sox almost seemed content to work the pitch count up and wait to do their damage against the Tigers' struggling bullpen. While it will still be important for the Red Sox to get deep in counts and work the pitch counts of St. Louis's starters, they will need to produce some runs against them too. The Cards' bullpen is far superior to that of the Tigers, so Boston can't just expect to get a few runs in the late innings regularly again. Boston's hitters, especially the top three of Ellsbury, Victorino and Pedroia, will need to be a bit more aggressive and produce some baserunners earlier on in games this series. The 7th inning will likely be too late to get the offense going against the Cardinals.
1. Battle of the Bullpens
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| Will Koji be celebrating in the end? Photo: http://joyofsox.blogspot.com |
The last point leads perfectly into the #1 deciding factor of the World Series. Relief pitching. Everything above shows how close of a series this has the potential to be. Many of the games may be decided on one or two key plays, which naturally take place in the later innings. The Cardinals' slightly superior starting pitching paired with the Sox slightly superior hitting should keep the games pretty even through the first 6-7 innings, meaning the games will likely be decided at the end. Both teams have the right to be confident if that's the case. In close games, Boston rarely uses relievers outside of their big four of Workman, Breslow, Tazawa and Uehara. These four have simply been lights out, allowing two earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched this postseason. Uehara specifically has been historically great. He was just named MVP of the ALCS, which is no small feat for a relief pitchers. In the regular season meanwhile, he posted the lowest single season WHIP in THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL (.565). He also had a 1.09 ERA, a .130 batting average against and 101 Ks in just 74.1 IP. His command though, is what impresses me most. In those 74.1 IP, he walked 9 batters. NINE. Since August 3rd, almost 3 months ago, Koji has not walked a single batter. And he does all of this with a sub-90 fastball. The Cardinals relievers, though, seem to be up to the task of matching the Sox pen. In the playoffs, they have combined for a sub-2.00 ERA, with only one reliever (Carlos Martinez) giving up more than 1 run. And his postseason ERA still sits at 2.70. And don't expect Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal to run and hide after hearing Uehara's stats. In 7 innings pitched this postseason, Rosenthal has kept opponents off of the scoreboard while only allowing 3 hits and striking out 9. Assuming that the games are mostly close throughout, whichever bullpen can stay the hottest may decide the
series.
This should be a hell of a series, enjoy it!
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